Who are they going to blame?

So a deal has been done and as I write Westminster is debating it, in an extraordinary Saturday sitting of the House of Commons. If Boris  wins the vote, then the UK will leave at Halloween.

A date that is quite appropriate as the English always like to have a someone to blame. Now this may be just human nature but the British do it rather well.

UKIP and the Brexit Party encouraged people to blame the countries ills on immigrants taking their jobs. They also pointed to as many crazy EU rules like straight bananas, as they could find, to persuade people to vote leave.

Now it looks like Britain will leave, but Number 10 had been gearing up the blame game, if they had to leave without a deal. Preparing to say that it was because the Irish border was being used politically to frustrate Brexit. So therefore crashing out of Europe was the fault of the Irish, the EU, the Backstop, or Parliament.

This tactic has been stopped in its tracks by the Taoiseach Leo Vradkar going the extra mile to find a pathway to a deal. Then the leaders of the 27 countries being prepared to revise the Withdrawal agreement. With the result that if Westminster votes this new deal down and the UK leaves without a deal. The blame will lie firmly in London. There will be no bogey man for Brexiteers to blame.

A situation that those members of the British electorate that Mr Farage encouraged to believe that it is all about regaining the British Empire will have to get used to.

When the promised investment in policing doesn’t happen, but to funding having to go elsewhere.

When the NHS is diminished to virtually nothing, so that Mr Farage’s’ backer can sell more health insurance.

When the new hospitals promised by Boris turn out to be private, not NHS.

As more companies move from Britain to Ireland to avoid tariffs, new taxes and the increase in cost of living post Brexit.

Which will result in higher unemployment and a sicker society as fewer people can afford health care.  The question will be who are they going to blame?

Now those Brexiteers who want to leave on 31^st October come what may will this this is Project Fear.  Yet should Boris’ new deal with its border in the Irish Sea lead to a border poll in Northern Ireland and subsequently a united Ireland. Who will those wanting to regain the empire blame for the break up of the United Kingdom?

Westminster and in particular the Brexiteers have largely ignored the opinions of Scotland and Wales, because they voted overwhelmingly to Remain. Indeed the same could be said for the opinions of people in Northern Ireland. There is no faster way to make people feel disenfranchised than to ignore their opinion. To stand any hope of maintaining the integrity of UK. Westminster needed to bring the people of the devolved nations along with them. This could have happened if Theresa may, The ERG and now Boris Johnstone had at least worked with the House of Commons on their negotiating position before invoking article 50. Had they done so the UK would have done a deal with the EU that was acceptable to the UK parliament, and so would currently be in the transition phase of leaving the European  Union.

Instead like John Bull in a china shop, they rushed head long into negotiations without taking the people with them.

The Brexiteers are keen to blame parliament for frustrating Brexit, saying it is Parliament versus the people. When in actual fact whilst they claim to be trying to do what 17.4 million people want. They have not told the 17.4 million what is going to happen, not have they listened to the concerns of the 12 million who did not vote,  or tried to persuade the 16.8 million Remainers of their case. Instead one leading Brexiteer has said Britain will be fine in 50 years. This laissez faire, attitude means that were there to be a second referendum; polls indicate the result would be very different.

In Ireland we are used to having referenda, indeed there have been quite a few since I moved here. None of which a non-Irish citizen can vote in. The results of these referenda have been clear on the whole and worked through efficiently. The issues whilst fundamental to the Irish Constitution , were not as complex or as divisive as Brexit. It should be said that Ireland as on occasion had 2^nd referendums on a subject. These have been referred to as “are you sure” referendums. 

Referendums are there to give politicians a guide as to what the electorate think. The Irish Times has said that referendums emasculates politics.

Yet the efficiency with which the results of the Irish referendums have been delivered on is due to the proportional referendum electoral system meaning that the Doil has a wider spectrum of opinions in it than Westminster.

Politicians in every nation can be accused on lining their own pockets and Ireland is no different. People in Ireland don’t necessarily trust them anymore than in Scotland or England. Brexit has however shone a light on the worst excesses of these characteristics in some British politicians. Many of whom will no doubt leave the stage once Brexit is done, before the actual hard work begins and before they can be blamed for the mess Brexit has caused.

Opportunity Knocks

Having just completed my Higher Diploma in Supply Chain Management I am looking for employment again, and I am confident of finding the right role. I am a firm believer in  the power of networking to create opportunity.

My couurse included a ten thousand word dissertation, and given my beckground I decided to look into the impact that Brexit would have on the supply chain of the Irish Hotel Industry. In the end I concluded that provided Ireland remains savy, Brexit will actually provide a great opportunity for Ireland. She can make great gains through promoting herseelf as the only english speaking country in Europe and a country with a stable political system not prone to extremism.

Whilst Britain humilates herself , hoteliers in Ireland can make up for the loss of short stay tourists from Britain, as uncertainty covers the UK like an immovable cloud; by growing their market in the BRICS countries of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa through partnerships and joint promotions with airlines, as well as building on the affinity they have with America. Whilst a number of products in their supply chains come from the UK, and there may be delays in getting these items post Brexit, by looking again for Irish made alternatives, they could increase the number of guests that come from their domestic market and save money.

All of this is an example of looking for the silver lining behind the Brexit cloud. I like a lot of people can be prone to self doubt and worry about my future but surprising things can prove quite cathartic, in lifting how you feel and enabling you to see a hurdle as an opportunity.

A film that has always stuck in my mind is Dead Poets Society. I like the repeated theme in film about gathering the rosebuds of opportunity. I know that opportunity is knocking on the door for me and for Ireland. So I am going to hunt out these opportunities and seize the day.

Don't blame the Irish

I am proud to be a British Scot living in Ireland. Which is why following the goings on at Westminster upsets me. The mess that Briatin is facing at the end of March is of its own making. It is casued by the ignorance and failure of politicans to come together for the good of the country.

The most vociferous Brexiteers are letting their ignorance of history, be a reason to blame Ireland for the deal they have in front of them. It is not Irelands fault that neither Boris Johnson, or Jacobs Rees-Mogg stepped upto the plate when David Cameron stepped down. Instead they go onto the media to pontificate from the sidelines without accepting responsibility for anything.

Nor is it Irelands fault that the UK went into negotiations with Brusssels with no BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement), a self imposed deadline and all their cards open for all to see. The Brexiteers fail to realise, according to Brexitcast, that most of the EU rules they dislike originated in Westminster.

Certain people would like the English population to believe that the World Trade Organisation says you don't need borders. When in actual fact what they did say was that whilst they do not enforce borders, in order to trade under their ausipices a country needs to have customs checks at its borders with other countries. This means that should Britain leeave the EU without a deal, in all likeiehood there will  have to be a British border with the Republic of Ireland. One that will therefore have to be policed. This could and possibly will prove to be a human, economic and political tradegy for both countries. A fact that is not lost on the American Congress, who are trying to do whatever they can to suppport the Good Friday Agreement.

If the Brexit politicans in the ERG, (which interestingly stands for the European Research Group) are so cavalier about international agreements like this one. Why should any country trust them to stick to trade deals or international agreements in the future. Sir Ivan Rogers said the Brexiteers are dreaming that as soon as the British turn up to negotiate, everything they don't like about the Candian and Norwegian trade deals with EU, will magically be overcome. Recent evidence and the lack of cross party coordination on Brexit proves that Britain unfortunately is not as strong an international negotiator as some like to think.  We are not living in the 18th century with an army and navy that rules the world.

The playing of party politcal games and general ignorance of the consequences is not Irelands fault. Ireland may in fact end up being a victim of these games. It feels similar to the position that Britain may find herself in. Like Norway, when it comes to dealing with the EU they have to accept trade conditons from the EU without having any influence.

In otherwords Ireland could see a significant drop in GDP due to something she has no influence over. Now pro-brexit people will say that all this is project fear, and it would be great if it was and everything turned out to be milk and honey. Yet given what has happened in the last two years, I don't think it is, but I do know that Ireland is not to blame.